IDEA
Home : About Us : Contact Us : Sitemap
Our Approach Get Started SmartProducts Logistics Publications Links
Rethinking Supply Chains



 Click for a self
guided presentation on Elucidate that explains the 
problems without it, the opportunities it offers and 
the changes required to improve.
Case Study: How Replenishing Inventory by Pulling it thru the Supply Chain increases profits

Blog

Secrets Hidden in Plain Sight

In our contemporary world of Big Data, political correctness and endemic obesity, if you are aware of something counterintuitive, it can be openly discussed and clearly visible without attracting broad attention.  However, the relative security of an overt secret will vary with the times.  By Henry Fitzhugh Camp, September 2, 2015



We like to conceive of ourselves as rational beings but then how do you explain the herd mentality?  On one hand, we are logical.  On the other, we cast our lots with others to the point of resembling lemmings secure in following the masses off a cliff. 

Lemmings

There are physiological drivers of our unhealthy addictions to sugar, gluten and alcohol.  But what of ideas?  Are they embraced due to a self-secreted cocktail of happiness chemicals: endorphins, dopamine, serotonin and oxytocin?  Simon Sinek suggests as much in his recent book Leaders Eat Last.  I agree that what first survived and then evolved into Homo sapiens is relationship-driven.  This suggests and perhaps explains why people put complex interrelationships ahead of their own rationality and, hence, our fear of failing to be politically correct in our every utterance.

Using that as a working hypothesis, it is easy to believe that people, in an attempt to remain accepted and acceptable, will strive to ignore any counterintuitive notion until after it has become both broadly embraced and common knowledge.  So then, how does a new idea ever get to be commonly accepted?  Indeed!

There is an extraordinary amount of new data being created every day.  Just recently, I read that IBM estimates that half of the data in existence today was created within the last two years.  However, I do not notice us, as a race, becoming wiser at the same rate.  Therefore, the volume of new data is obscuring the truth, not elucidating it.

I was fascinated by the chart that Nate Silver used in the conclusion of his book, The Signal and the Noise.  I have reproduced it below:

Predictability

I’ll let him explain it. 

“Our views on how predictable the world is have waxed and waned over the years.  One simple measure of it is the number of times the words ‘predictable’ and ‘unpredictable’ are used in academic journals.  [The data shown in figure C-2 is based on searches conducted of the JSTOR catalog of print journals.  I searched for cases in which the word ‘predictable’ or ‘unpredictable’ appeared in the journal at least once (but not both words in the same article), breaking down the results by decade of publication.]”

The previous century started with a balance, let’s call it uncertainty, between the two positions.  The Great Depression weakened not only the world economy but also the confidence of academics (and presumably people at large) to a greater and greater extent, peaking during World War II at almost two mentions of “unpredictable” to every “predictable.” The financial boom of the 1950s, innovations around the moon race of the ‘60s and at least imaginings, if not an expectation, of a Star-Trek-like future in the early ‘70s spurred confidence that the future is knowable.  Exclusive usages of “predictable” soared, doubling in 30 years. 

Although the degree to which our sense that the world is more predictable than unpredictable has fallen over the subsequent 40 years, it remains almost exactly opposite of what it was in pessimistic 1945.  As you can see from the chart, confidence in predictability remains double that of our willingness to admit to chaos. 

I have spoken about and written that the climate is not yet ripe for broad acceptance of the Theory of Constraints.  Despite a steadily creeping fear that, just maybe, those things we seek to forecast using the modern sea of available data are not, in fact, forecastable, the herd continues to demonstrate by its expenditures that it is firmly entrenched in the camp of expensive forecasting and advance planning software. 

If we further consider that the understanding of the masses trails that of academia, which trails pioneers in the practical world, we are a long way from global acceptance of and significant demand for TOC.  Hence, TOC is a secret to be exploited and not yet something to be pushed on others (except those one has authority over and who need to know), probably for the next several generations to come.

 
81 Comments
The lack of critical thinking, relativism and a desire for truth creates the lemming or drone and their unknowing willingness to follow the herd over the cliff, until it's too late. Great post Henry.
We judge a scientific theory by its ability to explain and predict observed phenomena. The theory of constraints is a valid theory because it helps to explain and predict many important phenomena. Yet, TOC succeeds because it accepts uncertainty other perspectives ignore and shuns predictions common in business today. TOC is explanatory because of what it doesn’t try to explain. And TOC is predictive because of what it doesn’t try to predict.
This was so helpful and easy! Do you have any ariltces on rehab?
Jimbo -
Hello. And Bye.
????????: icq : 486-207-503 skype : arch-gold ?????? ?? gold: ???????? 24/7 ????????, ???????? ??????? BL 250+ [url=arch-gold.ru]arch-gold.ru[/url]
? ????? ???????? ? ????????, ??? ???? ????...
Lola#Jert -
???°???‚???µ????????, ???°???‚???µ?????????µ ???????????°?????‹, ???µ???‚?????? ???°???‚???µ?????????… ???????????°????. . CPAgetti, 7.6 13, 7.8, 7.1, 7.7, 7.6, 15.05.2017. KMA.biz, 7.6 18, 7.8, 7.3, 7.8, 7.5 . biomanix29.moykrest.ru
Hello. And Bye.
Celerzissida -
I love when they finish right in the mouth and I really like anal sex. Write me on my profile waiting for you Copy the link paste into the browser and write me bit.ly/2tdXfin
Mathewziply -
Search engines like google use complex mathematical algorithms to guess which Web-sites a consumer seeks. On this diagram, if Just about every bubble represents a Website, packages occasionally termed spiders look at which internet sites backlink to which other web sites, with arrows representing these hyperlinks. Web-sites acquiring more inbound hyperlinks, or much better backlinks, are presumed to become far more important and what the consumer is attempting to find. [12] For the reason that results and recognition of a search engine is set by its ability to produce the most related effects to any supplied lookup, inadequate quality or irrelevant search engine results could lead on consumers to discover other search resources. Engines like google responded by acquiring more complicated ranking algorithms, taking into consideration supplemental elements which were tougher for site owners to control. In case you’ve been living below a rock for the last ten years, you might be shocked to listen to that a lot of people use good phones Which good phone lookups now account for a far more search quantity than desktop searches. We have been dealing with Ajay and his group for any number of months now and they may have significantly exceeded our anticipations with their degree of information and normal communication. If you end up picking to copy your textual content while in the WordPress backend, duplicate without the structure. You ought to adapt the format while in the backend; usually, you could possibly run into some layout difficulties. The checks of your material Evaluation will explain to you what facets of readability will need improvement. Many of the readability issues are very easy to fix. If you are likely to jot down very long sentences, our material Assessment will demonstrate which sentences You need to rewrite. @networkinginut We will likely be putting together a free electronic advertising course for Utah Business people. We'd like to invite your users. And this is additionally why try to be blogging, as I’ve discussed advert nauseam in previous article content. Not merely do blogs give great content towards your visitors (go through: person experience) In addition they stimulate social media sharing and conversation, which results in social signals, and that is what I’ve been discussing for the last few paragraphs! Google Quick, authentic-time-search, was released in late 2010 within an try and make search results far more timely and suitable. Traditionally web-site directors have invested months or perhaps a long time optimizing a website to improve research rankings. The final step to absorb the Yoast Search engine optimization meta box is filling the Social knowledge. When you complete an outline or title for any social community on this tab, it’s shown in the metadata for the webpage. This implies this description, title or graphic are going to be demonstrated in the event the page is shared on the respective social community. The material analysis helps you to make your text straightforward to browse, whilst the Search engine optimization Evaluation checks whether your textual content is SEO-friendly. Within this put up, I’ll 1st explain A very powerful options of the Articles & SEO Analysis Tool. Following that, I’ll demonstrate how to use and interpret these characteristics. Do you might have the resources to streamline the efficiency within your #Site? Consider aspect two of our ongoing series. Search engine optimisation.com/website/the-websi… Thus, the lookup time period “snow tires??has progressed into, “Exactly what are the best snow tires for a 2008 Ford F150?” By often examining this info, we can successfully regulate our techniques and regularly strengthen how we improve and make written content for your internet site.
???????: ??????? ? ??????? ?????? ??????? ????????: icq : 486-207-503 skype : arch-gold ?????? ?? gold: ???????? 24/7 ????????, ???????? ??????? BL 250+ [url=arch-gold.ru]arch-gold.ru
I like hard anal sex Write to my profile Copy the link and paste it into the browser: bit.ly/2rSs533
Frankkek -
The lack of critical thinking, relativism and a desire for truth creates the lemming or drone and their unknowing willingness to follow the herd over the cliff, until it's too late. Great post Henry.
Hello. And Bye.
Hello. And Bye.
Hello. And Bye.
Andromaniszissida -
?? ????? ???? ????? ? ????? ? ???? ????? ????. ???? ??????? ??? ??? ??????? ?????????. ???????? ??????????? ?????? ?????? ? ??? ????? ????? ?????? pokras7777 ?????????? ?????????? ???? ??????? ????? ????? ?????? pokras7777
Vastutnet ?????? ??????? ?????? ?????? ?? ?????????? ???????????????? ????? ?? Vastutnet ????? ??????? ???????,????????????? ?????? ?????????? ? Vastutnet ????? ru
RaymondEnato -
Hello. And Bye.
Arucechign -
Hello. And Bye.
Hello. And Bye.
Boruszissida -
Hello. And Bye.
Aurizarzissida -
I really love when I'm hard fucked my ass Write to me if you like me here is my profile: bit.ly/2sdp1hD If the link is not active, copy it and paste it into the browser: bit.ly/2sdp1hD
unclepug
???????: ??????? ? ??????? ?????? ??????? ????????: icq : 486-207-503 skype : arch-gold ?????? ?? gold: ???????? 24/7 ????????, ???????? ??????? BL 250+ [url=arch-gold.ru]arch-gold.ru
A breath of fresh air! Thanks for a thought-provoking post. Sadly, since Eli's passing, I sense a deterioration in the TOC acceptance and visibility. As lemmings go, "Good to Great" created a huge herd of lemmings.
Ray Immelman -
A breath of fresh air! Thanks for a thought-provoking post. Sadly, since Eli's passing, I sense a deterioration in the TOC acceptance and visibility. As lemmings go, "Good to Great" created a huge herd of lemmings.
Ray Immelman -
Like it.

After the first six years of my career, I left commercial banking. I did so largely because there was a tendency for all banks and lending officers to aspire to the same types of loans. That way, when they all went bad, bankers could collectively commiserate as some watering hole and look at each other and say, "Holy shit! That was bad!" Or, "Wow, I didn't see that coming!"
But, since they all made the same mistakes, most would get promoted and some would even lead banks at some point. After all, rising to leadership at such companies if often as much or more about interpersonal skill than talent. So, at some early point in my career, I made a loan that almost no other banker in my bank would. It was for a cable TV franchise in Mobile, AL and I had to virtually impale myself in front of our loan committee to get it done.
I had earned some credibility and pulled it off. But, afterwards it occurred to me that, if the loan ever went south, I might get fired or demoted. Advancement would be simpler by just being a Lemming. So then I thought, "I'm not being paid enough to take this kind of risk!" ...which I wasn't, since my pay and bonuses weren't better than anyone else and I had just impaled myself. So I left banking and took another path.
I am sure there are times when I, too, have been a Lemming, but I have tried to avoid them. I came to work with other non- Lemmings in far smaller companies that we have created (we non-Lemmings have to stick together, too!) and it had been a much more fun ride ever since.

Hope you're having a great summer.
Hello Henry, This is very interesting. I look back now & remember that in the air service I ran in TCI & in Haiti and Champion Wood Prod. here. I didn't know anything & had to invent a lot & ended up with a sort of T O C !

Thank you
When did you start your blog? Interesting thoughts. Yes, it is difficult to listen to the news media, and try to discern the truth.
Dang Henry! That’s powerful stuff.

I’m going to be thinking about this for days, at least.

Thanks for always being you!
Really enjoyed reading the article.

Thanks
Hey, Henry, hope you are well. I was reminded how grateful I am for my experience with IDEA. I would have never have thought, it changed my view of business, the way I think, and taught me things that continue to serve me today. For that I am forever grateful. Anyways. I recently finished reading a book that I'm sure you've read "Poor Charlie's Almanack" by Charlie Munger. If by some chance you have not, I'm sure it would give you great pleasure.

All the Best,
Hi Derek, Great to hear from you! Funny that you should be reading that while I’m reading Snowball, a biography of Warren Buffett! Munger had a big influence on Buffett – taught him to buy good companies not just used cigars with one mo puff left. All the best,
Brilliant is a massive understatement.
By the way, from my perspective, although it's very real that academia uses the book The Goal, I find zero evidence that academia is embracing the Theory of Constraints.

If that is accurate, we still have a chicken and the egg, will business get it started, or will academic yet? My bet is it will come from business.
“TOC is a secret to be exploited” very good. Cheers
Henry, So happy I have been found. Very thought provoking! Bankers have truly been lemmings. Our regulators have certainly forced us down that path.
Ann Wells -
Hello. And Bye.
Thanks, good stuff. As we have talked about, few professions (or human endeavors) are more fraught with “lemming-like” tendencies than investing. The incentives, and the psychological and behavioral imperatives, to align with the market herd are enormous and powerful. As you know, the fund I manage is as far from the market as one will encounter, and I have gotten used to, and comfortable with, being different. But, I have had days (and weeks) that were less comfortable than others
Thanks, good stuff. As we have talked about, few professions (or human endeavors) are more fraught with “lemming-like” tendencies than investing. The incentives, and the psychological and behavioral imperatives, to align with the market herd are enormous and powerful. As you know, the fund I manage is as far from the market as one will encounter, and I have gotten used to, and comfortable with, being different. But, I have had days (and weeks) that were less comfortable than others
Thanks, good stuff. As we have talked about, few professions (or human endeavors) are more fraught with “lemming-like” tendencies than investing. The incentives, and the psychological and behavioral imperatives, to align with the market herd are enormous and powerful. As you know, the fund I manage is as far from the market as one will encounter, and I have gotten used to, and comfortable with, being different. But, I have had days (and weeks) that were less comfortable than others.
Hello. And Bye.
Hello. And Bye.
Mairazissida -
AlbertSmica -
Hello. And Bye.
Hello. And Bye.
Hello. And Bye.
Hi Henry - great blog - provocative :-)

Bertrand Russel once said we much rather die than think.

I can't remember but some other modern philosopher said we much rather go to our grave being right than doing the right thing.
An Australian Author of Children's books recently wrote: "Sometimes we see what we want to see, not what's really there. The opposite may be equally true. Sometimes we don't see what's really there because we are too busy not seeing what we don't want to see. From Robot Riot by Andy Griffiths.
Lemmings and Orthodoxy much the same - a haven for those who fear to take risk or to open their minds. Eyes wide shut. Stay safe. This is Efrat's Could is at play. Venturing to the other side - "growth" requires courage and thinking. Why is it so hard? a) one has to not accept the stays quo meaning chance being professionally ostracised and b) thinking - critical thinking requires more than just the pleasure of cognitive ease as explained by Daniel Kahneman in "Thinking Fast and Slow".
In it he distinguishes between the lazy brain drawn to cognitive ease (system 2) and the hard stuff requiring attention and effort (system 1). The Theory of Constraints is System 1. Despite operating in the realm of common sense it demands attention and effort to think clearly and logically. We are not programmed for that.
TOC is not a secret (it is known by many) but it might as well be. More than 8m copies of The Goal has been sold. To make use of it one has to think. For those fortunate enough to have curiosity matched with courage then a whole new universe awaits them.
We have not yet reached the tipping point for adoption of TOC along the Diffusion of Innovation S curve through any of its many applications. However, Eli Goldratt did create TOC for Education as the primary driver to teach the world to think. As the younger generation move out of school into the wider world the chances for more rapid adoption are enhanced. It is up to the TOC community to help this cause and accelerate the creation of minds that can think and minds that can see.
Andrew, I love your quotes and also Kahneman's book, to the point that I keep it right on my desk as a reference. I spoke at the last TOCICO about how humans evolved not to use their slow but smart and resource intensive parts of their brains. Folks can't be blamed. It is bred in the bone.
To Download the presentation, add ht plus tp: to // and then bit.ly followed by /1VINTDg
However, I do believe a "Think Yourself Skinny" Madison Avenue marketing campaign using Clouds and other TP to wind up the system 2 brain might become a worldwide fad.

Of course, the fad would then end and like the Churchill quote "Man occasionally stumbles over the truth, but usually picks himself up, dusts himself off and hurries along," the TOC part would be forgotten and they'd go back to eating until their old clothes fit again.
We judge a scientific theory by its ability to explain and predict observed phenomena. The theory of constraints is a valid theory because it helps to explain and predict many important phenomena. Yet, TOC succeeds because it accepts uncertainty other perspectives ignore and shuns predictions common in business today. TOC is explanatory because of what it doesn’t try to explain. And TOC is predictive because of what it doesn’t try to predict.
One of the things that I continue to learn from you is that so much of the adoption of TOC depends on communication. When we enhance our capability to talk TOC to uninitiated parties, then our words can become beneficent wolves in sheep’s clothing.
I love "beneficent wolves in sheep’s clothing." I frequently have called TOC a beneficial virus. Its problem is that it is not very virulent. You have to work TO catch it.
Terrific insights. TOC still offers the best approach to continuous improvement. I found "Why companies fail.. " more relevant than "Good to Great".
Lew Cadkin -
Sorry, I didn't intend to imply that Chemtrails aren't real, only to query what Andrew meant. I've alwyas referred to the residue left by airplanes as "Jet Trails", so I had to look up his terminology--which is where Wikipedia came up. I tend to use Wikipedia (and other default Google results) as a dictionary rather than an authority. So, I wasn't trying to back up (or even make, for that matter) a point. :-)I'd like to apologize for using "Conspiracy Theory", too. Obviously, (since I haven't heard about it before), Chemtrails would be the result of a "conspiracy." And since I had little or no hard evidence for or against it, I would call it a "theory." Actually, by the scientific definitions, it would be a "conspiracy hypothesis", because I didn't have any research yet.However, I do recognize that there are negative connotations that accompany the phrase "conspiracy theory", but I didn't think before I used the phrase. Also, I inadvertently called Andrew a "conspiracy theorist" which also is less than civil. I honestly had no malicious intent! So Andrew, I'm sorry!On the actual issue of Chemtrails, I don't have enough resources (Google turns up mostly panicked opinion writers with few facts) to address the problem. There's just too many questionable stories to analyze them all!May God protect you and your family from whatever threatens. Jonathan Potter
Selvin -
This message is from a trusted sender. ID: #M54L3D84409MH Your account has been limited. Dear user PayPal. We've limited your access and the reason is the last login attemp,we've limited your account for security reasons . To fix this problem you have to login and update your personal informations by following this link . updata Your Account C?pyrights Reserved 1999 - 2016 Help & Contact - Fees - Security -Features
Hello. And Bye.
Hello. And Bye.
Hello. And Bye.
Hello. And Bye.
Thanks for sharing your latest blog. Well done lad. The Predictable/Unpredictable index was very enlightening. Seth Godin couldn’t have said it better.
Good stuff. As we have talked about, and you know, few professions (or human endeavors) are more fraught with “lemming- like” tendencies than investing. The incentives, and the psychological and behavioral imperatives, to align with the market herd are enormous and powerful. As you know, the fund I manage is as far from the market as one will encounter, and I have gotten used to, and comfortable with, being different. But, I have had days (and weeks) that were less comfortable than others.
I appreciate the eloquent reminder that doing things well, and better than “average”, nearly always requires a willingness to run a more solitary path.

Best wishes,
Hello. And Bye.
Hello. And Bye.
Hello. And Bye.
Hello. And Bye.
Hello. And Bye.
Hello. And Bye.
Hello. And Bye.
Hello. And Bye.



Leave a comment.



Home : About Us : Contact Us : Sitemap :   IDEALLC 2008 Copyright